Thursday Link: Soulmate Math

Enpey sent me today’s link ages ago.  It’s a rather bizarre xkcd post about soulmates. It takes a few leaps of logic that don’t strike me as very logical. All in the name of proving that the whole soulmate idea is kinda ridiculous.  Too bad the agenda is too obvious to permit the post to be credible.

I didn’t post it because I wanted to do the math for frum Jews. Calculate how many Jews there are in the world. Where they live. How likely you are to meet them. How many you’d have to meet to find your soulmate.

But somehow, more interesting things kept getting in the way – like trying a new carrot ginger soup recipe, or attending a kayaking club meeting.

But a quick google right now brings up an estimate of 1.6-1.8 million Orthodox Jews worldwide. Maybe 500,000 of those are chasidim. Probably an equal number are modern orthodox, yeshivish, heimish, Mizrachi, or some other group you’d be able to share a life with in a million years. So take off 1 million.

There are about 550k in Israel and 120k in the rest of the world outside the USA. Let’s assume that most of those are in countries that don’t speak your language and who you’d be highly unlikely to communicate with. Nix another 600,ooo.

Let’s say about a third of the population is too young for you and a third too old for you. Divide by three.  That leaves 133,333 people that you’d have to date to find your soulmate.

If you have 15 years or so for dating (on the assumption that when you hit 35, if you don’t add “froze my eggs” to your profile, you won’t get any more dates), that would be 8,889 guys per year.  If you freeze your eggs or find open-minded guys, that’s 5,333 guys per year.

Wow. I am so behind.

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9 thoughts on “Thursday Link: Soulmate Math

  1. You also forgot that as ppl get married the ppl you are allowed to date diminishes making it easier. Assuming 80% of ppl are married then you only need to date 20% of 5,333 guys per year. Also because 50% are females and you are looking for marriage and not a commitment ceremony, take a further 50% off that. Now THATS more manageable!

    Then add G into the mix and the chance of you finding it rises to 100%!

  2. 1. i think you just ruled out categorically most of the guys your blog posts suggest you would get along with (“Probably an equal number are modern orthodox, yeshivish, heimish, Mizrachi, or some other group you’d be able to share a life with in a million years”).

    2. your numbers are seriously off. the estimated number of chareidi men in israel who arent chassidish and don’t fall into any one of the other groups you mentioned is at most ~200,000, and even that is a very generous estimate… (most setimates give it about half of that). there, just saved you more than half the time, and if you factor in not dating ones who are too young/old/married you are actually down to numbers you could work with

  3. Shachar – I was giving a general overview of “sub-groups,” not listing any that were particularly anathema to me. However, my math was very American-centric. I suppose Israelis would have their numbers whittled down considerably.

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  5. Rod – you are so obviously not a person, and so opaque about what you’re advertising, that I have to leave you here just for laughs.

  6. ^Like.

    I saw that xkcd post a few months ago and actually made the point to a friend how much easier we have it, although looking at your numbers, perhaps not. Then again, we believe that we have God to help us find ours.

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