Even More 10% Followup

Another email from Mr. Tropper providing more fun with numbers. This is apparently how actuaries spend their free time, when the rest of us are zoning out or eating cookies.

Here it goes:

“In theory – In order to solve the issue the average age gap only has to be reduced by about 30 days a year. ”

Meaning, we don’t want 20-year-olds marrying only other 20-year-olds. What we really need is that the average age gap reduce by about 30 days every year for a series of years.

“As the age gap goes down the rate the age gap has to be reduced goes down. So after say 10 years the reduction would have to be about 20 days. The goal in this theoretical world would be that after about 30 years men would marry women about 1 year younger than themselves (to account for the 1.05 sex ratio).”

That’s more fun-with-math stuff. If you don’t follow it, don’t worry.

“To understand why this is so we can imagine a world in which everyone is average – all boys marry when they are 23 and all girls marry when they are 20. Let us assume that due to the skewed ratio of girls to boys the relevant power decided that all boys must marry at 22 instead of 23. If such a thing where to happen there would be close to twice as many boys as girls dating in that year. That is because we would have all the 23 year old boys and all the 22 year old boys dating only one year of girls.”

The last two sentences are unclear, so let’s clarify them. In this perfect world, every man gets married at the age of 23 to a girl of 20. If you declare that now men must marry at 22, then the year’s 23-year-olds and the years 22-year-olds are in direct competition for the same set of 20-year-old women. This would reverse the crisis, but not be much fun.

“In order to solve the problem (in our theoretical world) the age boys marry would have to be reduced slowly, by about 30 days each year [for a number of years].”

To avoid the rush on women.

“Obviously we do not live in a world where things can be done like that however the underlying principal remains true. Even a very small change in the average age gap will have a relatively large effect on the ratio of boys to girls.
It is for this reason we believe the issue is a lot more solvable then it would appear.”

I then emailed the following questions and got the following responses:

But – and here’s a rather large but – there are places where math seems to break down in the face of reality, which is not perfect, average, or subject to no forces besides equations.

“Although there is no absolute age gap in the real world there is an average age gap, which should act pretty much the same as an absolute one. Granted there are other issues in the real world such as the uncertainty in the birth rate, gender ratio, and individual preferences, however these issues account for only a small part (maybe 2 or 3%) of the problem.”

There is such a thing as mathematical sophistry. Why would this theoretically perfect world be a model for our not-theoretically not-perfect one?

“The relevant point here is that the issue is solvable both in the short term and the long term. Since, in our opinion, a majority of the disparity between the numbers of girls and boys in shidduchim is due to the age gap issue, the theoretical principles that can be used to solve the problem should work in the real world as well.
It if important to note that the solution to the problem does not require drastic changes in dating patterns, an unlikely proposition. Even a small change in dating pattern will be enough to solve the problem for the next decade or so. Obviously we will want to continue working so that we do not have an issue in a decade from now either.”


6 thoughts on “Even More 10% Followup

  1. ok… good to know… I guess that I should only be dating guys who fit into the right mathematical age gap, because I definitely don’t want to add to the shidduch crisis… but hold on… I shouldn’t either be dating anyone whose more than two inches taller than me, cuz if I marry someone tall I’ll be taking away from the really tall girls… and we should figure that out with IQ too…
    anything else I didn’t think of?… I would really hate to add to the shiduch crisis by finding my bashert.

  2. and if the age boys marry needs to be reduced by 30 days a yr… how old are our kids gonna get married?!!
    something tells me that this is not a good idea…

  3. I tend to agree. I mean, what if my bashert is 3 years older than me? Doesn’t this initiative make a few assumptions?

  4. Only a few assumptions? Men and women are different in their approach to just about everything, and problem solving is no exception. Men like numbers because they can be tidily arranged and disposed of. Throw numbers at the shidduch problem and all will be solved, just like that.

    People don’t act like numbers, basically because they aren’t numbers.

    “Granted there are other issues in the real world such as the uncertainty in the birth rate, gender ratio, and individual preferences, however these issues account for only a small part (maybe 2 or 3%) of the problem.”

    For one thing, when a boy chooses to marry a girl three years younger then he is that is a “personal preference” but personal preferences only account for 2 or 3 percent of the problem. A little contradiction here. It’s nice to know that our personal preferences, the things that we want in someone we are marrying, only count for 2 or 3 percent of the shidduch problem. Numbers uber alles!

  5. How do you create an avergae change of 30 days per year? Who decides to be above average and who below? If, hypothetically, you said the gap cant be more than 3 years less 30 days, and assuming a sizable amount of people get married at a smaller gap than that – then you will have a reverse shidduch crisis still – as you need the ones above 3 years to create the average. (i.e., it will be like shaving the gap by a few hundred days in that year..meaning too many guys, not enough girls)…So basically nothing practical about this, but fun in terms of maths.

  6. Pingback: My Explanations for the Shidduch Crisis « Bad for Shidduchim

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